As the Wednesday trading session unfolded in the United States, gold and silver faced downward pressures primarily influenced by a prevailing bearish sentiment in global markets. The strength of the U.S. dollar index and rising yields on government bonds reflected investor caution, leading to fluctuating prices in the precious metals market throughout the past week. Specifically, February gold experienced a drop of $10.70, landing at $2,657.20 per ounce, while March silver slipped by $0.412 to settle at $31.08 per ounce.
Across the globe, Asian and European equities displayed a mixed performance during the recent overnight sessions, indicating a complex interplay of bullish and bearish sentiments across different regions and sectors. However, the opening of the new trading day in New York showcased a remarkable rally in U.S. stock indices, which surged upwards, successfully breaching historical highs. This phenomenon, often referred to as the “Santa Claus Rally” in stock market vernacular, drew significant attention from investors worldwide, highlighting the seasonal optimism that typically characterizes year-end trading.
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In political developments, South Korea’s opposition leader has called for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, following his brief imposition of martial law, which was later rescinded. This political turmoil seemed to add to the volatility already present in South Korean markets, where the Korean won made a recovery from prior losses, though stock selling pressure persisted.
Meanwhile, in France, President Emmanuel Macron urged lawmakers to reject a confidence vote aimed at toppling his government. A report from Bloomberg noted that while market conditions appeared relatively stable, investors were still apprehensive that this political unrest could escalate borrowing costs within France and exert pressure on the euro. The no-confidence vote is set to commence around 10 AM New York time today, accentuating the ongoing instability in French politics.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) provided a somewhat optimistic outlook, projecting that major global economies might achieve higher growth rates by 2025. However, they also cautioned that this economic recovery could be jeopardized by escalating trade tariffs. The OECD's latest forecasts operate under the assumption that trade policies will remain unchanged. Given current tensions, particularly from the U.S. imposing higher tariffs on imports, retaliatory measures from affected countries appear imminent, raising the specter of a trade war that could thwart global economic progress.
As this week progresses, the U.S. economic data calendar remains packed with crucial reports, culminating in the highly anticipated monthly employment situation report from the Labor Department scheduled for release on Friday. A comprehensive survey by Bloomberg suggests that the November non-farm payrolls could indicate an increase of approximately 200,000 jobs. Furthermore, on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participated in a panel discussion, drawing considerable scrutiny regarding his commentary on monetary policy and economic outlook. Concurrently, OPEC's oil cartel will convene for a significant meeting on Thursday, promising yet another focal point for investors keen on energy markets.
Today, the prevailing belief in major external markets points towards a stronger U.S. dollar index. Meanwhile, oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange registered slight gains, with trading prices nearing $70.00 per barrel. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes currently stands at 4.24%, highlighting the interplay between government bond rates and market sentiment.
On the domestic front, a variety of economic data was released on Wednesday. This includes weekly mortgage applications from the MBA, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI), the global services PMI, the ISM business services report, readings on manufacturer shipments and inventories, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and the Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum status report.
From a technical analysis standpoint, February gold bulls find themselves in a favorable position in the short term, with the next significant upward objective set around a closing price above the solid resistance level found at this week's high of $2,748.00. Conversely, bears are aiming to push future prices below critical technical support at $2,600.00. Initial resistance for gold appears at this week’s high of $2,678.50, followed by the $2,690.50 level observed last Friday. On the downside, initial support levels are at $2,650.00 and the week’s low at $2,644.50.
For silver, the March futures market currently presents a balanced battleground between bulls and bears, both seeking technical dominance in the near term. Silver bulls are targeting a closing price that surpasses the technical resistance ostentatiously set at $32.50. Meanwhile, bears aim for a close below the solid support at $30.00, stressing the tug-of-war present in silver pricing dynamics. The first resistance threshold has formed at last night's high of $31.63, with further resistance likely at $32.00. The subsequent support levels are pegged at this week’s low of $30.51 and a further drop to November’s low of $30.095.
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